Tomorrow is the anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech. It's also the date Glenn Beck chose for rally. I see a few likely outcomes for tomorrow's rally.
Option One: The Rally is a Triumph
Crowds on par with Obama's inauguration. Beck delivers a speech on par with the Gettysburg Address.
Option Two: The Rally is a Failure
Dismal attendance numbers. Beck pulls a Michael Richards rant.
Option Three: None of the Above
At this point, I very much doubt whether anything less than a "live boy or dead girl" would drive away Beck's fans in large droves. However, I also doubt that he's going to pick up many fans from here on out. His ratings may go up around election time, or if there's an Obama sex scandal, but people already know who he is, and they've probably figured out whether they like him (or trust him). Tomorrow is about whether Glenn Beck's needle moves up or moves down.
Marc Ambinder has an
interesting post at The Atlantic about Beck's popularity and what he's done with it. He nails the essence of Beck's style:
Beck attaches a distinctly Christian millennialism to everything he does. This means that there are no shades of gray; everything Beck is doing is THE MOST IMPORTANT THING EVER at that moment. He is given to extreme comparisons; to Nazi analogies and MLK analogies.
That gets to the root of why I, and I'm sure many of his detractors, just don't like him. According to Ambinder, Beck "conceives of this current era as the apex of a social experiment that began in the 1960s and was later joined by currents that have existed since Woodrow Wilson's time." Wilson left office 89 years ago, and the sixties ended four decades ago. America is still here. We also managed to weather the Trail of Tears–a shameful, despicable episode in American history. And the Klan. And Roosevelt's 90-something percent top tax bracket. And Nixon committing felonies. And the Iraq war. We're still here.
There is a market for "The End is Nigh!" messages, but many people–including myself–have heard that message, lived to see the next day, and determined to never buy into that mindset again. Splitting a pitcher of beer and a basket of chicken wings isn't going to obliterate a lifetime of healthy eating and exercise. Then again, going for a nice, long run isn't going to completely work off the calories from that half-pitcher of beer (unless it's a
really long run).
Tomorrow's rally won't be the end of Glenn Beck, but I doubt we'll see "
the spirit" speaking through him and marking the beginning of a thousand years of peace. But whatever happens, the end is not nigh. I just wish Beck knew that.